NFL Odds: Giants vs. Eagles
When the New York Giants (1-5) take on the Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1), the winner could be in position to take over first place in the NFC East if the Dallas Cowboys lose on Sunday. It’s peak Thursday Night Football, but I am grateful for every game that gets played this season — that we get to bet on!
The Eagles have seen heavy action ever since they opened as 5.5-point favorites — 65% of bets and 68% of the money are on them as of writing (find real-time public betting data here). But once it was clear that the Eagles would be without running back Miles Sanders and tight end Zach Ertz, the line fell to -3.5, though it’s since crept back up to -4.5 with DeSean Jackson and Lane Johnson cleared to play.
I’m projecting the Eagles as 6-point favorites based on all of these updates.
They’re coming off a brutal three-game stretch in which they had to face the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens. Those three teams were all able to attack the Eagles’ biggest weakness right now — their offensive line — by generating pressure. But the Giants are more average in terms of generating pressure (14th), so Carson Wentz should have a clean(er) pocket on Thursday night.
Wentz also has his primary deep threat in Jackson back. Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor should return in the coming weeks, too, but Travis Fulgham has played well enough to remain in the starting lineup even when all the other pass-catchers are healthy. He’s another reason I’m leaning toward the Eagles — and it helps that the Giants have been a pass funnel defense, ranking 23rd against the pass but 15th against the run in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
The Eagles have enough healthy weapons to take advantage of the inferior team.
New Giants head coach Joe Judge may have a difficult time game-planning on the short week during a pandemic, so there’s also a huge coaching edge here as Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has the experience and a more analytical approach that will benefit the Eagles with limited prep time.
I liked the over at 43.5 earlier this week, but the total is up to 45 at most books as of Wednesday evening (compare live odds now). And while my projected total for this game is 46.5, which I expect the market to climb to eventually, I’m staying away at the current price.
As for the spread, I’m leaning toward the Eagles at -4.5, but note that I don’t consider it a must-bet — it’s only a recommendation if you’re itching for action.
LEAN: Eagles -4.5