Basel vs. Frankfurt Odds
|Basel odds||+180 [BET NOW]|
|Frankfurt odds||+125 [BET NOW]|
|Draw odds||+295 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (-112/-112) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Thursday at 3 p.m. ET|
Basel will look to hold onto their 3-0 aggregate lead on Thursday as they take on Frankfurt at home. The away side will be going all out to try and make comeback.
The home side is most likely going to sit back for most of the match and play for a low scoring affair, so Frankfurt are the natural favorites for this match despite the 3-0 loss in the reverse fixture.
Basel had a disappointing finish in the Swiss League. They finished in third place, which is their lowest finish since 2004-2005. Their expected goal numbers are nothing to write home about either. Their expected goal differential per match is just +0.16, which is really low for a league as weak as Switzerland.
Basel got an amazing draw in the Round of 32, drawing the champions of Cyprus APOEL Nicosia. They asserted their dominance, winning on aggregate 4-0. However, they weren’t as dominant as the final score line suggests.
They only won the expected goals battle 3.25 to 1.44 over the two legs. Frankfurt is a massive step up in competition and since they have a three goal lead, I think Basel will be fine with a one or two goal loss.
Die Alder took out the Austrian champions Salzburg in the round of 32, winning 6-3 on aggregate.
They finished off the Bundesliga season in scorching fashion winning five of their final seven matches. They dominated their opponents over that stretch, winning on average by +0.43 xG per match (1.81 xGF, 1.38 xGA).
Frankfurt was one of the most underrated teams in the Bundesliga this season. They finished in ninth place, but Die Adler’s +7.60 expected goals differential suggests they should be in seventh place in the table. With Die Alder being down 3-0 on aggregate they will have to go all out to make a comeback, so I think they are worth a bet on Thursday.
Projections and Pick
Based on my projections, I think Frankfurt is undervalued in this match. Basel is most likely going to sit back in this match, so I think backing Frankfurt to win at +125 (DraftKings) provides some value on Thursday and I would bet them all the way down to +110.
Pick: Frankfurt +125