Brett Deering/Getty Images.
It’s not much of a secret that weather can affect the outcome of a football game. And as such, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that oddsmakers often shift lines on account of game conditions.
However, what might not be as well known is just how much weather — and in particular, wind — matters. Thankfully, we have a database that can tell us exactly that.
Since 2005, college football games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 56.5% rate on a sample of more than 1,000 games (558-430-34).
And while it diminishes the sample, bumping the threshold up to 17+ mph, accordingly, increases the win rate to 59.1%. Pushing up to 20+ mph games returns a 64.5% clip.
And considering those are win rates that would make any professional bettor happy, you might be curious as to which of Saturday’s games fit the bill. So, let’s take a look.
College Football Windy Weather Forecasts
Odds, forecasts as of 11 p.m. ET Friday.
Penn State vs. Nebraska
12 p.m. ET | FS1 | Lincoln, Neb.
- Projected wind speeds: 12 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 55.5 to 56.5
South Alabama vs. Louisiana
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Lafayette, La.
- Projected wind speeds: 13 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 53.5 to 53.5
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
4 p.m. ET | FS1 | Lubbock, Texas
- Projected wind speeds: 19 to 25 mph
- O/U open to current: 59.5 to 56
Northwestern vs. Purdue
5 p.m. ET | BTN | West Lafayette, Ill.
- Projected wind speeds: 16 to 19 mph
- O/U open to current: 49 to 49.5
SMU vs. Tulsa
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2 | Tulsa, Okla.
- Projected wind speeds: 14 to 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 63 to 64.5
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET | ABC | Ann Arbor, Mich.
- Projected wind speeds: 13 to 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 50.5 to 52.5