West Brom vs. Tottenham Odds
|West Brom Odds||+575 [BET NOW]|
|Tottenham Odds||-210 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+350 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.75 (-107/-113) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Sunday, 7 a.m. ET|
Tottenham travels to The Hawthorns on Sunday to take on Premier League bottom feeders West Bromwich Albion. A win would move Spurs to the top of the Premier League table, although either Leicester City or Liverpool could overtake them with a win later in the day.
Spurs haven’t exactly impressed of late, but they have a chance to enter the international break with three straight wins.
A look under the hood at West Brom makes you wonder how all of their games have so many goals. They rank last in passes inside opponents’ box and sixth lowest in passes allowed inside their own box. Their games don’t feature a lot of possession sustained 20 yards from goal, and it’s actually remarkable that they’ve allowed so many chances from that. Even then, they’re underperforming their expected goals allowed (xGA) numbers, and regression should come there too.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Baggies have had issues in attack, generating a minuscule 3.25 xG this season through seven matches. Their attack is really, really bad, and there’s no positive signs of regression forthcoming. In fact, they’ve been lucky to score the six goals that they have. They’ve averaged less than 0.5 expected goals for per game.
I expect West Brom to sit deep and absorb pressure, which is something Spurs have struggled to break down this season. If Tottenham do score, they don’t allow many passes inside their final third either (third lowest), so they’ll likely sit on their lead and coast to a 1-0 or 2-0 win.
I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about Spurs this season. They are way better than I thought they’d be. No team has improved more in my ratings since the start of the season, with their summer signings and a rejuvenated Harry Kane turning Tottenham into the Premier League’s second-best team according to expected goal difference (xGD).
Spurs have outplayed all but one of their opponents so far this season according to xG data, and they would be atop the table already if it wasn’t for a pair of stoppage-time equalizers. With Kane and Son Heung-min leading their attack, improved fullbacks and Tanguy Ndombele and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg patrolling the midfield, Spurs are legitimate title contenders.
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But one interesting managerial choice I’ve noticed about Jose Mourinho in recent matches presents value for this fixture. Spurs have a tendency to shut down their attack and look to exclusively counter once they’re ahead in a game.
After going 3-0 up against West Ham, Tottenham couldn’t keep possession or maintain control of the game, and they let it slip. Against Brighton, Spurs found almost no avenues to counter once leading by one goal, and eventually conceded. Mourinho’s side isn’t really built to play this way because of their defensive issues, but that’s how he does it anyway.
It’s quite a contrarian take to bet a Spurs under given how well Kane and Son have played, but regression is inevitable. Against a poor West Brom team, there’s no better spot to grab an under 2.75 goals than this one. WBA will struggle to score and generate much of anything going forward, so I’ll take the under here, even though my numbers project it at 2.84.
Pick: Under 2.75 goals (-113)