Sportsbooks took a pounding last week as NFL favorites went 11-1, a Sunday saved by the underdog New England Patriots, who beat the Baltimore Ravens outright on Sunday Night Football.
“It knocked out almost every parlay and teaser,” said Eric Osterman from the Superbook in Las Vegas.
If there’s a theme this week, Osterman believes it’s public overreaction.
The biggest overreaction might be on the Patriots, who opened as 3-point underdogs against the Houston Texans this week. Now, New England is 1.5-point favorites in Houston after beating the Ravens.
The Action Network PRO Report shows that the sharps are loving New England. While 66% of the bets are Belichick’s team, 93% of the money is.
Check out our new NFL PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Pittsburgh is 9-0, which means that the public will bet them at almost any number. They opened as a 10-point favorite against 1-9 Jacksonville.
“They’re like the Chiefs last year,” Osterman said. “It doesn’t matter what number we hang. But once we hit 10.5, that’s when the sharps came in. There’s a ton of money on the Steelers here, people are even putting them in their moneyline parlays (at -500).
In some places, Pittsburgh is back at 10.5 and holding.
Another surprising reaction is from Indianapolis Colts backers. The Colts opened as 2.5-point dogs to the Green Bay Packers and have gone to the other side. Indianapolis is now a 2-point favorite.
Despite having one more win, the Packers barely beat the Jaguars in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Colts had a day to their own, delivering an impressive win over the Titans on Thursday Night Football.
Miami is now 6-3 and 3-0 with rookie Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback. The public can’t get enough of the Dolphins, seeing them as 3.5-point favorites as too little on the road against the Broncos. The Action PRO Report has 92% of the money on Miami, and it’s similar at the Superbook.
“Almost all our spread, parlay and moneyline bets are on the Dolphins,” Osterman said.
At FanDuel, it’s one of the most lopsided games of the year with 98% of the money on the Dolphins.
There isn’t an overreaction for the bad teams. In fact, the Cowboys are getting enough action that their opening line is getting shorter from +9.5. The Fighting Jerry Joneses are coming off a bye and a five-point loss to the Steelers, and their number is already down to -7. The Action Network Pro Line Predictor says the move will likely be shorter to +6.5.
“We’re seeing some money coming in on the Dallas moneyline,” said Osterman.