|Arkansas Odds||+17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Florida Odds||-17.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+550 / -835 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||60.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
My university is undefeated against the spread in 2020, which has this alum singing, “Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble when you’re an Arkansas Razorback fan” daily. That tune is rambled universally by Razorback fans after victories in any sport, and aspirations are high on the Hill in Fayetteville.
The biggest news on the Arkansas side is head coach Sam Pittman contracting COVID-19, which will keep the coach of the year candidate from traveling to the Swamp.
Pittman is correct in saying the staff is elite. There is no reflection in the Arkansas power rating without Pittman because of coordinators Kendal Briles and Barry Odom. Both coaches are responsible for the game plan, execution and halftime adjustments. If there’s anything you need to know about Pittman, it’s that the coach is widely popular in the recruiting world and with players on the roster.
Arkansas continues to cover despite deficiencies in every facet. The Hogs are outside of the top 100 in rush explosiveness, tackling and special teams. The most explosive player on offense has been Treylon Burks, who averages 6.4 yards after contact on rushing attempts.
Only three players in the country have as many rushing attempts and more yards after contact. Those numbers are even more impressive considering Burks’ primary position is wide receiver.
Will the Gators be able to survive the hangover of defeating Georgia for the first time since 2016? The biggest takeaway stat from the cocktail party was Florida finally showing up on third down, limiting the Bulldogs to two conversions in 13 attempts. A 4-1 Gators team is projected to win the SEC East with a remaining schedule of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU.
Florida’s best weapon is tight end Kyle Pitts, who suffered a concussion after a brutal collision against Georgia. Quarterback Kyle Trask leaned on Pitts the most, as the tight end holds a team-high in first downs, receiving yards and touchdowns. In 35 total targets this season, Pitts has yet to drop a pass or fumble the ball.
The Florida defense had its best day against Georgia, but the question remains whether or not it can deliver the same level of play for a second week in a row. The Gators still rank outside the top 100 in tackling, coverage and Rushing Success Rate. Florida improved marginally to 85th in opponent third-down conversion rate following its game against the Bulldogs.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The balance in this game hangs on the news of Pitts’ availability. Florida is still very much in the national title picture, but a loss at any point does not hurt its chances to compete against Alabama for the SEC Championship.
The Action Network projection is dead on with the current market, but any steam on the Florida number with or without Pitts will require a small play on Arkansas leading up to kick.
Dan Mullen commented that the “mental toughness and mental attitudes” from Arkansas do not show up in the stat line. This is apparent with Arkansas, which ranks in the bottom half of almost every offensive statistical category.
If there is an angle on this game, it is the full-game under. The Pace Report projected a total of 58 with Florida running a tempo that is 88th in the country. The Gators would take a hit as a pass-first offense without Pitts, while the Arkansas defense is top-20 in coverage and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Pick: Under 62 or better.