Florida vs. Vanderbilt Odds
|Florida Odds||-31.5 [BET NOW]|
|Vanderbilt Odds||+31.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-5000/+1400 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||67.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, noon ET|
Fresh off shellacking Arkansas, 63-35, the Florida Gators travel to Nashville to take on the winless Vanderbilt Commodores. Florida is a staggering 31.5-point favorite as of writing.
The real story of this game will be Kyle Trask’s Heisman campaign. The UF quarterback is +250 win the award at DraftKings, putting him basically on par with Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence.
With an explosive offense that will be motivated each game through the end of the season to pad Trask’s stats, how should bettors look to play this SEC matchup with such a lopsided spread and high total?
This Florida offense is firing on all cylinders. The unit is scoring nearly 46 points per game this season and averaging 7.36 yards per play. Head coach Dan Mullen has found the formula for Trask and a bevy of skill players to thrive.
Even last week without stud tight end Kyle Pitts — who will be inactive for this one as well — the Gators torched the Arkansas defense, racking up 593 total yards of offense and scoring touchdowns on 6-of-7 trips to the red zone.
Trask’s numbers are video game-like at this point. He’s completing 70% of his passes, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, and ranks ninth in the country in passing yards with 2,171. He’s leading the nation with 28 scores through the air, which is five ahead of the second-most. He’s also thrown only three interceptions all year.
The freight train that is the Gator offense will likely keep chugging along on Saturday afternoon. On the other side of the ball, the Vanderbilt defense as a whole is in shambles, allowing a shade under 3.9 points per drive each time it takes the field. Against an explosive Florida offense that is playing with a purpose, this scoreboard is going to be changing constantly.
True freshman quarterback Ken Seals had his best outing of the season last Saturday against a formidable Kentucky defense, completing 65% of his passes with two touchdowns. On top of that Keyon Henry-Brooks topped 100 yards rushing for his second game in a row.
Both of these developments are massive for a Vandy team searching for its first win. Henry-Brooks left the Kentucky game early with an undisclosed injury but is expected to play.
While Vandy’s defense is likely going to be picked apart by the red-hot Trask, this Florida defense is no immovable force. The Gators have allowed 30 points per game this season, possibly because the offense is scoring at such a high rate that the defense lets its guard down.
Either way, in what is expected to be a high-scoring outing from the visitor, Vandy should have its fair share of possessions to try and score on this Gators defense that ranks in the bottom half of the country in explosive pass defense.
An issue for the Vandy offense has been holding onto the rock. Derek Mason’s team is 111th out of 126 teams in turnovers lost in 2020, and it could set up Trask and Company with a short field quite often. Florida has also forced nine turnovers in six games this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
A 68-point over/under may seem sky high in a matchup that pits a bad offense against an elite one, but I think we’re going to see a high number from the Gators aided by the effort to pump Trask’s numbers up as much as possible.
This offense has not been held under 38 points this season, and there is nothing that suggests it won’t top 40 once again. Another 60-point effort could be in play against a Vandy defense that has struggled to stop anyone this season, allowing 38 or more points in 4-of-6 games.
I think Vanderbilt is going to be able to score a bit as well.
After scoring a season-high 35 points on the road against Kentucky, it may be a sell-high spot, but I think the home team is going to find the end zone at least twice and give the Gators a short field through the course of the contest.
I played the over at 67 and have this total projected at 73 points. I would feel comfortable playing this over to 69 points while rooting for Trask to continue to beef up his Heisman candidacy with a 50 burger in Nashville.
Pick: Over 68 (up to 69)