Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathaniel Jones
- Danny Donahue leverages The Action Network PRO Report to highlight betting signals, market trends, line movement, and indicators of sharp betting.
- Most of Saturday’s college football slate has been characterized by an under trend, but not so for Nevada vs. New Mexico.
- Danny Donahue breaks down how sharp action, big bets and model projections illuminate value on the over in Saturday evening’s MWC matchup.
Nevada vs. New Mexico Odds
|New Mexico Odds||+17|
|Time||6:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||FOX Sports 2|
Wisconsin-Michigan may steal most of the headlines, viewers and betting action on tonight’s college football slate (and to be fair it’s also drawing its share of sharp action).
But the pros are looking at more than just the marquee matchup for value this evening. Specifically, they’re targeting a neutral-site Mountain West Conference matchup between Nevada and New Mexico.
Our PRO Report details how sharp bettors are playing the game total.
Nevada vs. New Mexico PRO Report
While many of tonight’s sharp plays have come on the under, the big bets from sharps in this case have been landing on the over. And our model agrees with the pros’ assessment.
Over the course of the week, seven Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on the over.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Generally, a 52% to 48% edge wouldn’t result in a reaction from oddsmakers. But when the 48% side is accounting for 98% of money, well that’s another story.
On top of the monetary liability, that discrepancy also tells us that the over is drawing much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.
Big Money edge: Over
Sharps aren’t the only ones projecting this line higher than the current number. Our model projects this game with a total of 65.7, suggesting more than a field goal’s worth of value remains.
Model Projection edge: Over