Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez Odds
Deiveson “Deus de Guerra” Figueiredo is back in the octagon defending his Flyweight belt against up-and-coming challenger Alex Perez Saturday. Figueiredo has been on a tear since 2019 with four straight wins, including back-to-back finishes over Joseph Benavidez.
Perez is in his third bout this year and stepped in as a replacement for Cody Garbrandt. Perez went from Dana White’s Contender series to championship challenger in just three years and has just one loss on his UFC record entering this bout.
Below I break preview the matchup and odds for the UFC 255 main event. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||9:44||6:49|
|Date of birth||12/18/87||3/21/92|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||2.80||4.68|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.81||3.10|
|Take Down Avg||1.71||3.03|
Figueiredo vs. Perez Pick
Figueiredo finally secured Flyweight gold with his second win over Joseph Benavidez in July, and his finishing ability is proving to be an outlier in the 125-pound division.
Unfortunately, his style is fundamentally flawed if he isn’t able to secure a finish, as Figueiredo rarely wins minutes — he tries to line his opponents up and knock them down. He also doesn’t check leg kicks with regularity, which is one of Perez’s better weapons, so I do expect the underdog to look very competitive at the start of this fight.
Perez is the more technical boxer and he was an All-American wrestler, but even though Deiveson was taken down a combined 10 times by Jarred Brooks and Jussier Formiga, I think his grappling has come a long way, and his scrambles are incredibly fast.
Even though he hurt Benavidez in his last fight, which led to the choke, Deiveson is still the first man to ever force “Joe Jitsu” to tap. Every time Figueiredo fights, I get the feeling that I am witnessing something special.
Unfortunately, he just doesn’t let his hands go, as Perez lands an additional 1.86 significant strikes per minute, with a far superior differential (+1.58 to -0.01).
There is certainly a path to victory for the underdog, but Perez was knocked out by Benavidez, and Figueiredo looks like you’ll have to run him over with a truck to knock him out at 125.
Spending 25 minutes inside of a cage with “Daico,” there’s no question that Perez will get clipped at some point.
I thought Deiveson would put his original opponent, Cody Garbrandt, down with relative ease, but I do think Perez has more of a chin on him.
That said, it still might not matter, and I projected Deiveson to win inside the distance 71% of the time (implied odds of -245). You can bet that prop to win a half unit up to -159 (implied 61%).
The Brazilian’s moneyline was bet up from a soft opener at -210 up to -300, but has seen some resistance trending towards Perez roughly 24 hours before the fight.
The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo wins Inside the Distance (-159)