NFL Picks For Patriots at Jets
The value is on the total, which is sitting at 42.5 — three-and-a-half points higher than my projection of 39.
According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots offense runs at a glacial pace of 36.00 seconds per play with a lead of seven or more points, which ranks 31st in the league. However, only five teams have spent less time with a lead in 2020 than the Pats, which is likely to regress in a matchup against the NFL’s worst team.
Odds are that we see a slow-paced, run-heavy slog of a game from the Pats. The Patriots run the ball 50.1% of the time (second-highest) and aren’t likely to stray from that formula despite the Jets’ strength on defense being against the run, which sets up perfectly for the under.
The Jets go slower than average when trailing by seven or more points (25.57 seconds per play; 19th), and since Adam Gase became the head coach, Jets unders are 10-5-1 in East Rutherford, falling short by an average of 4.1 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data.
I would bet the under down to 40.
The Jets are 0-8. Oh, you knew that, huh?
New York has eight games left. Five of its remaining opponents are better than .500, fighting for the playoffs. A sixth game is a cross-country road trip to a pretty good Chargers team, at least for the first 55 minutes. And the other two are against the Patriots. This one is a home game, which means that yes, this is the most winnable game remaining on New York’s 2020 schedule.
History would say otherwise. The Patriots have won eight straight times against the Jets, and New York has averaged a piddly 9.1 points per game in those games. But in case you haven’t noticed, these are not the same Patriots who played those last eight games.
Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door. And Cam Newton might, but he ain’t throwing it. The Patriots have seriously struggled to pass the ball with a distinct lack of receiving options. The line hasn’t been the same. The defense has been downright blah. This isn’t a vintage Pats team, and it’s not even last year’s flawed group. The Patriots were already down a number of key players due to opt-outs heading into the season, and they’ve only gotten more shorthanded as the season has gone on.
The Pats are on a four-game losing streak. They haven’t looked particularly good or threatening on either side of the ball since September. Newton is back but doesn’t look healthy.
Still. It’s the Jets. The Jets!! They’re so bad, and now Sam Darnold won’t start, so it looks like a heavy dose of the Joe Flacco and Frank Gore show.
The Jets are not good. But the Patriots aren’t good, either. New England does exactly one thing well in 2020: Run the football, an effort led by Newton. But guess what? The Jets are bad at pretty much everything except stopping the run. They’re actually pretty good against the run!
This line has risen from 7 to 9.5 and will probably rise higher by kickoff. Sorry, but this New England team is not a double-digit favorite against anyone. Not even the Jets.
I’m taking the Jets to cover, and I’m not stopping there. At +350 at PointsBet (and rising across other books), I’m gobbling up a little bit of the moneyline as part of my bet, too. That gives the Jets an implied 21% chance of a win. Are the Patriots really 79% sure against anyone right now? Don’t think of it as the Jets winning. Just think of it as this garbage New England roster losing.
It would mark the end of the New England dynasty, for good. Why not? Let’s have some fun.
J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!
Mike Randle: Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Rec (-140)
Injuries to Julian Edelman (knee) and N’Keal Harry (concussion) have thrust second-year wideout Jakobi Meyers into a prominent role in the New England passing attack.
The 24-year-old former undrafted free agent saw a 100% snap share in Week 8 against Buffalo, producing six receptions for 58 receiving yards. Meyers saw a team-high 10 targets, more than doubling any other Patriots receiver.
The Jets pass defense is among the league’s worst, ranking 31 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Faced with the possibility of an unfathomable five-game losing streak, expect the Patriots to aggressively attack the Jets early, in an effort to play with a lead. With 16 targets and 10 receptions over the past two games, Meyers will be at the center of the Patriots offense all game.
Our FantasyLabs Props Tool projects Meyers at 4.3 receptions, 22.9% above the line of 3.5 receptions. It’s an 8-rated prop in our tool, and 8-rated props have a win rate of 58% (397-285-8).
Given the high 10-point spread, however, I would not back this higher than 3.5 receptions.