Wolves vs. Crystal Palace Odds
|Wolves Odds||+105 [BET NOW]|
|Crystal Palace Odds||+325 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+205 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+170/-220) [BET NOW]|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
Another exciting week of Premier League action commences Friday when Wolverhampton hosts Crystal Palace in a battle of surprising sides at Molineux Stadium.
How surprising have things been so far for these clubs? Wolves and Crystal Palace sit in eighth and ninth place on the league table, respectively, putting both ahead of traditional title contenders Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.
Needless to say, it has been a welcomed start for Wolves and Crystal Palace, who find themselves three points from the top spot in the standings. Both campaigns must be full of confidence and cautious optimism, knowing that big things might be ahead in England’s top flight this season.
That said, let’s take a look at both sides and what could be in store.
Saying the start to the Wolves’ season has been interesting is the definition of an understatement.
The club stumbled greatly out of the gate, dropping a 3-1 decision to Manchester City before being dealt a 4-0 thrashing from West Ham United to open winless and pointless.
However, Wolves responded in grand fashion with back-to-back 1-0 shutout wins against Fulham and Leeds United. Most recently, the club should have picked up all three points against Newcastle United, but a late equalizing goal from the Magpies pushed the match to a 1-1 draw.
Wolves is anything but stellar when comes to the advanced metrics, sitting on a paltry 5.1 expected goals and even worse 6.7 expected goals against this season. That translates into a -1.5 xGDiff and -0.26 xGDiff/90 minutes.
The club’s xG stat is only better than early relegation combatants West Bromwich Albion (3.4 xG) and Burnley (4.6 xG) in the entire 20-team league.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Eagles enter this fixture fresh off a 2-1 road win against Fulham at Craven Cottage. The victory snapped a three-game winless skid and pushed the club into the top half of the table.
Wilfried Zaha continues to carry the Crystal Palace line, racking up five of its eight goals in league play. He added to his haul in the Fulham win and has to be enjoying his early-season success.
Crystal Palace has been a tough to team read so far after such a rollercoaster start to its campaign. The Eagles soared out of the gate with a 1-0 shutout win against Southampton in its league opener before notching their shocking 3-1 win against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Needless to say, it’s tough trying to figure out which Crystal Palace side you’re going to get each time it steps on the pitch. I thought the Eagles would likely finish somewhere between 11th and 14th at season’s end, so they’re just slightly ahead of that projection at the moment.
When comparing its statistical data against Wolves, Crystal Palace is worse in every category except expected goals. The Eagles boast 6.1 expected goals and a brutal 8.7 expected goals against, resulting in a -2.6 xGDiff and -0.43 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Honestly, you would expect a whole lot more from clubs both sitting in the top half of the table ahead of that array of marquee, ultra-talented teams.
As mentioned earlier, Wolves had a difficult start to its season, but seems to be rounding into form. This is a balanced side I forecasted to finish inside the league’s top half at season’s end, so you should expect a big effort in this spot.
Wolves faces Arsenal, Liverpool and Leicester City in three of its next five fixtures, so the club has to be thinking three points in this affair with that extremely road ahead.
Having that in mind, I am backing Wolves to get the job done at Molineux Stadium and will play the host on the moneyline.
I will also side with the total going over the alternative number of two goals. Crystal Palace has given up at least one goal in each of its five league tilts, with Wolves conceding goals in three of five games.
On paper, this looks like a low-scoring affair when you crunch the data, but I believe we are going to see a back-and-forth tussle here and plenty of activity in each others’ defensive thirds of the pitch.
Picks: Wolves ML (+105); Total Over 2 Goals (-113)