NFL Odds: Chargers vs. Broncos
|PRO Projections||Chargers -2.5 | O/U: 46|
|Time/Channel||4:05 p.m. ET, CBS|
Hello, Justin Herbert. After starting the season as Los Angeles’ back-up quarterback, Herbert has exploded to the -177 favorite at DraftKings to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The betting market has taken note as well, evidenced by the Chargers giving three points on the road despite both teams sporting identical 2-4 records.
So, is Chargers -3 the play based on Herbert’s recent performance? Or are the Broncos getting a field goal at home the side with value?
Thanks to our new NFL PRO Projections, we not only know how to play the Chargers vs. Broncos spread, but we know it’s also the biggest early spread betting edge of Week 8.
Let’s take a look.
NFL Pick: Chargers vs. Broncos
The Chargers vs. Broncos consensus spread is Los Angeles -3, but our NFL betting model projects this line to be -2.5. A half-point may not seem like a big difference, but remember, in NFL spread betting not all half-points are created equal.
Since 2003, 14.8% of NFL games have finished with a margin of victory of three points, making 3 the most valuable number when betting spreads.
The difference between the true line of Chargers +2.5 and the ability to get it at +3 represents a 5% edge, but we can do even better.
Our betting model compares projected lines to market consensus lines, which in this case is +3.
While Broncos +3 is a good enough edge to back, in just a few seconds we can increase that edge by jumping on +3.5.
PRO Projection Edge: Broncos +3.5
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