Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Inter Milan Odds
|Shakhtar Donetsk Odds||+340 [BET NOW]|
|Inter Milan Odds||-136 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (+100/-124) [BET NOW]|
|Time||1:55 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Antonio Conte’s Inter Milan side travels to Ukraine for an away fixture in the Champions League on Tuesday. These two have recent history, having faced off in last season’s Europa League semifinals.
Shakhtar are coming off a huge away win over Real Madrid in Matchday 1 of the Champions League. Expect fireworks in this one.
Of the under the radar clubs in the Champions League, Shakhtar are a really fun watch. However, they might not be considered “under the radar” anymore after making the Europa League semifinals and beating Real Madrid. Nevertheless, they are still swimming upstream in most of their matches in this competition.
I loved betting the over in all of their Europa League matches last season due to their aggressive nature and finishing ability. They are currently third in the Ukrainian Premier League through seven matches, where their matches average 3.4 goals per match. Also, there are about 1.1 more goals when they play at home than on the road.
Shakhtar took advantage of a sleepy Madrid squad in Matchday 1 and got out to a 3-0 halftime lead before letting Los Blancos creep back into the game over the last 25 minutes. Shakhtar’s xG was 1.40 compared to Real’s 1.05. Some clinical finishing got them the three points.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
I would be hesitant to extrapolate too much from the match. Shakhtar had players missing due to COVID-19, while Madrid didn’t have their captain, Sergio Ramos, to lead the defense, and they just weren’t ready to play. It’s a fantastic win, but I’m not going to call for them to get out of this difficult group just yet.
Inter beat them 5-0 in the Europa League semifinal back in August. The xG tally was in favor of the Italians at 1.54-0.72. From the eye test, it was a thoroughly dominant performance by the Nerazzurri. The Ukrainian side played pretty defensively, which was rare and a surprise. I boil it down to nerves of being in a semifinal against a European giant. I would expect them to play more of their game here and to get on the front foot.
If you read my Champions League futures and group stage preview, you’ll know that I am pretty high on Inter this season. They aren’t one of the favorites, but I do think they have the squad and the manager to make a deep run in this competition.
Conte has a mind for getting defensive results, they have a relatively talented midfield and the attacking partnership of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez is very dangerous. Lukaku gets a lot of heat for coming up small in big games, but he is flat out dominant in most games he plays in. His physical presence alone is too much for defenders to handle. The Nerazzurri have started out well domestically, going 3-1-1. Their loss was to rival AC Milan in a match that Inter actually won the xG battle, 2.55-2.06.
Inter’s first Champions League fixture of the season ended a 2-2 draw against German up-and-comer Borussia Monchengladbach. It was a very entertaining game, which is what I was expecting. I really do think Inter got the short end of the stick in that match. According to xG, it was not even close with Inter winning 3.51-1.45. This really came down to some boneheaded errors from Arturo Vidal. The fiery Chilean made a clumsy challenge in the box that gave up a penalty kick for Monchengladbach’s opener and lost track of his man on the left wing for the second goal.
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Inter also need to be more clinical, as trailing their xG by 1.5 goals isn’t ideal. However, I would take some positives from that draw and hope these details can be ironed out by their seasoned manager.
Shakhtar Donetsk-Inter Milan pick
I think Inter are the play here at -136. I would play them up to -145 and would consider this a bargain. I’m pro-Shakhtar, but Inter are the class side in this fixture.
I also do expect some goals here, from evidence I have detailed above. I’d parlay over 2.5 goals (-200) with both teams to score (-205), which gets you to -134 on DraftKings.
The PICKS: Inter moneyline -136 (up to -145) | Parlay: Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at -134