The UFC is back at the APEX Saturday where MMA legend Anderson Silva will make his final walk to the octagon in a main event scrap with Uriah Hall. However, that fight isn’t a favorite of either of our UFC experts among the 11 fights that are scheduled for tonight’s slate.
Our crew has pinpointed two other fights on Saturday’s card that present betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Sean Zerillo: Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
From 2015-2019 Green went 1-4-1 over six appearances in the UFC, but he’ll now search for his fourth win of 2020, and his second four-fight winning streak with the promotion against the Brazilian Moises, who presents a favorable matchup for the American.
Green is the far-superior striker, both in terms of volume (+ 2.45 significant strikes landed per minute) and efficiency (+8% accuracy, +6% defense, +1.77 to -0.86 differential).
Furthermore, Green is a very adept and continually improving grappler, landing 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes (39% accuracy) in the UFC, including nine of his 12 attempts in 2020, while stuffing takedowns at a high rate on the defensive end (74%); including 15 of 20 attempts in 2020. Furthermore, Green hasn’t been submitted since 2009.
That severely limits the path to victory for the 25-year-old Moises. His takedown accuracy (28%) is subpar, and even if he does get Green to the mat, Bobby is extremely effective at avoiding submissions attempts and getting back to his feet.
Moises has good power, and he is a very opportunistic grappler, but he is the type of fighter that is generally losing his fights until the moment that he wins.
For example, he was dominated by Michael Johnson in the first round of their May 13 bout – down 27-1 on significant strikes in a likely 10-8 Round 1 – before securing an early second-round tap.
So long as Bobby Green continues to keep his head on straight, this is his fight to lose. And there’s a high probability that he scores a wide decision.
I would bet Green to win by decision to -188 (implied 65.3%), a five percent edge relative to my projection at -248 (implied 71.3%), and use him as the final parlay piece on this potentially chalky card.
The Bet: Green to win by Decision -139 (play to -188)
Reed Wallach: Maurice Greene vs. Greg Hardy
Contributor at The Action Network
I’d argue this line is set where it is due to Greg Hardy’s name and not his true skillset. Hardy’s former NFL career shot him up the UFC Heavyweight totem pole with zero rationale and he’s an overvalued fighter.
Maurice Greene is no potential contender in the weight class, but I do not think that there should be a 28% chance of victory, as the odds do suggest. Both men are massive for the division, but Greene stands 6-foot-6, two inches taller than Hardy.
Hardy lacks true MMA skill as he relies on his strength early, working around the outside of the octagon and pushing forward in short bursts late.
If this match gets out of the first two or three minutes, we may be going for a slog of a decision. In that case, Greene becomes incredibly more valuable. Greene is not a takedown artist but has been able to show flashes while grappling and does have five submission victories to his name.
I do not foresee much groundwork being done, but if these two meet along the cage, I trust Greene to lead the action and if not look for a submission finish, score well for the judges scorecard.
On top of my reasons above, Hardy missed weight at Friday’s weigh in, and was in danger of being the first heavyweight to ever miss weight in UFC history. One has to question his motivation heading into this one.
I like Greene here at any number above +200. I trust him more than laying a big number on Hardy. I also do lean the over 1.5 rounds, and will be playing that too at any vig under -125. Outside of the first flurry, I don’t expect to see true knockout power from either man, and will consider Greene by decision as well.
The Pick: Green ML (+250)