Marseille vs. Manchester City Odds
|Marseille Odds||+750 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester City Odds||-295 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+450 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+123/-157) [BET NOW]|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Things could get quite interesting Tuesday when French side Marseille hosts Manchester City in Champions League action at Stade Vélodrome.
This is a beyond important, Group C fixture for both clubs in the competition, with the Ligue 1 side in dire need of a positive result following its stunning, 1-0 loss against Greek power Olympiacos in last week’s UCL opener.
In contrast, Manchester City cruised to a 3-1 win against Portuguese side FC Porto in its tournament debut and would put itself in prime position to reach the knockout stage with a victory in this spot.
Manchester City is a heavy road favorite at close to 3-to-1 odds entering this showdown, so let’s take a deeper looker at the sides and what lies ahead:
Things have gone relatively well for Marseille this season in league play. The Phocaeans are three points behind Ligue 1 leader Paris-Saint Germain and Lille (PSG holds the tiebreaker) with Rennes on the table. Marseille is coming off back-to-back wins against Lorient (1-0) and Bordeaux (3-1) in its most recent league fixtures.
Unfortunately, that Ligue 1 success didn’t carry over into the Phocaeans’ Champions league debut. Marseille played its Greek foe even at Karaiskaki Stadium, but squandered all potential points when it Olympiacos scored the game’s lone goal a minute into extra time to steal the victory.
Now, Marseille is up against it with the English giant coming to town.
For a club sitting in the Top 4 in its league table, Marseille doesn’t really have good numbers when it comes to the data. The Phocaeans sit on 8.9 expected goals and a brutal 12.9 expected goals against, resulting in a -4.0 xGDiff and -0.50 xGDiff/90 minutes in Italy’s top flight.
Marseille’s expected goals are worse than Brest (12.4 xG/14th place), Lorient (10.0 xG/17th place) and Strasbourg (10.1 xG/18th place) out of 20 teams.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Manchester City has been anything but great in the Premier League so far, compiling a 2-1-2 record that has it stuck in 13th place at the moment. The Cityzens are coming off a disappointing 1-1 draw against West Ham. That result came on the heels of a 1-0 win against Arsenal in its previous fixture.
Some good news that came out of that tie on the weekend was the return of standout Kevin De Bruyne to the squad. The Belgian international, who missed time dealing with an injury, picked up some minutes off the bench and could feature against Marseille.
Getting De Bruyne back in the Starting XI would help forward Raheem Sterling, who will likely be the one leading the line with Sergio Aguero potentially sidelined after picking up a hamstring knock.
When it comes to the numbers, Manchester City has been mediocre at best. The Cityzens boast an extremely average 6.9 expected goals and 6.6 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.3 xGDiff and +0.05 xGDiff/90 minutes in England’s top flight.
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Marseille-Manchester City Picks
Neither side has been overly impressive as of late, which has me believing this tilt is going to be tighter than oddsmakers expect it to be.
Manchester City is nowhere near to being at full health, which has made its offense the definition of stagnant as of late. Add in the fact Marseille has been just as subpar and you have the makings of a dogfight.
With that in mind, I am backing the total to stay under the number.
I am also going to play Manchester City to score fewer than three goals. Outside of the three-goal output against Porto, the Cityzens can’t seem to get it together up top as of late. I will look for that trend to continue here, with Marseille tightening the screws defensively in a match that will likely determine its UCL livelihood and future.
Picks: Manchester City Total Under 2.5 Goals (-150) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-157)