Brighton & Hove Albion vs. West Brom Odds
|Brighton & Hove Albion Odds||-143 [BET NOW]|
|West Brom Odds||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110/-136) [BET NOW]|
|Time||1:30 p.m. ET|
When Brighton & Hove Albion hosts West Brom on Monday, it will appear to be a matchup of two teams that have experienced disappointing starts to the season, with the two sides sitting 16th and 17th, respectively, in the table.
While West Brom has been poor in every metric, the Seagulls will feel hard done given their underlying statistics. Brighton have just four points through its first five games, but have been creating chances and scoring as well as most other teams in the Premier League.
Is a matchup with the Baggies the kind of get-right game that Brighton need?
Let’s find the value in this one:
Brighton & Hove Albion
The Seagulls sit eighth in the Premier League with nine goals scored, and they are sixth with 8.56 xG. They improve to fifth in non-penalty xG at 7.03.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Brighton have faced a difficult schedule to start the season, facing the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton in their first five matches. Brighton performed well against Chelsea to start the season and will feel they were better than a 3-1 defeat, while the Seagulls were brilliant against Manchester United, only to have VAR award the Red Devils a penalty after the final whistle had been blown to give them all three points.
In its last game, a 1-1 draw against rival Crystal Palace, Brighton relied on a late goal to get a point from Selhurst Park. Their 1.09 xG in that contest was the lowest of Brighton’s Premier League season.
With their attacking prowess, Brighton’s defense has to be the issue behind its poor start, right?
Well, not exactly.
The Seagulls’ non-penalty xGA is the third lowest in the Premier League at 4.19, and they’ve conceded two penalties and were subject to plenty of bad luck to start their season.
In terms of expected points, Brighton are sixth in the Premier League table. Given its strong performances, positive regression is coming.
Neal Maupay is leading the Seagulls’ attack very well this season, and he’s good value for his four goals. Maupay has 3.94 xG through five games. Leandro Trossard, Aaron Connolly and Alexis Mac Allister help create a talented attack on England’s south coast that is waiting for the goals to start flowing.
While Brighton are toward the top of the Premier League in most underlying statistics, West Brom are dead bottom in them.
West Brom is 20th in xG (2.47), xGA (11.51) and expected points (1.98). The Baggies, simply put, are not good enough for the Premier League in any facet of their game.
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The Baggies do have two points on the season, though. The first was a 3-3 draw with Chelsea that saw them give away a 3-0 halftime lead. The other was a dull 0-0 draw with Burnley last weekend.
West Brom has not registered more than 1.00 xG in a game this season. Even when they scored three against Chelsea, there were multiple individual errors from the Blues that gifted the Baggies goals.
Brighton & Hove Albion-West Brom pick
Given the performances of these two teams and their current trajectories, Brighton is the pick in this one. The Seagulls’ -143 moneyline is pretty reasonable, too.
I like pairing that with Brighton’s team over at 1.5, which is -143. Together, those put you at +189.
The PICK: Brighton parlay: -143 moneyline | -143 over 1.5 goals.