Rockies vs. Giants Odds
|Rockies Odds||+130 [Bet Now]|
|Giants Odds||-150 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8 (-106/-115) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||9:45 p.m. ET|
San Francisco is fighting for its playoff lives, trailing Philadelphia by a half game for the final National League playoff spot. The Giants will send Drew Smyly to the mound in tonight’s game, with the hope he can shut down the Colorado’s lineup and keep their season alive.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
Rockies Probable Starter
Kyle Freeland, LHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Freeland has been solid so far this season, but he’s been a tad fortunate. His ERA may only be 3.75, but his xFIP is all the way up at 4.27. He’s made a commitment to throwing his off-speed pitches more this season, with his changeup and slider have been his main two pitches. He’s had decent success with those two pitches, allowing a .258 average to opponents. However, Freeland has a really difficult matchup tonight against the Giants.
San Francisco Giants
Surprisingly, the Giants have been a Top 10 offense this year. They hold the eighth-best wOBA (.335) and seventh-best wRC+ (113) in MLB. Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Belt have both been absolutely on fire this season, accumulating wOBAs over .395, with a combined 58 RBIs.
Most of the Giants’ success has come against left-handed pitching. They have a .354 wOBA and 125 wRC+, which ranks fifth in MLB. San Francisco should have no trouble getting to Freeland and Rockies bullpen.
Colorado’s bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster this season. They have a 6.89 ERA and 5.27 xFIP, which ranks in the bottom three in baseball. Even if Freeland is able to hold the Giants in check for the first half of the game, the Giants should be able to get to Colorado’s bullpen.
Projections and Pick
The matchup the Giants have offensively is just too good to ignore. Since I have 5.09 runs projected for the Giants, I think there is plenty of value on their team total of over 4.5 runs at +120 (DraftKings) and I would play it up to -111.
Pick: Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (+120)