Jazz vs. Spurs Betting Odds
|Jazz odds||+8 [BET NOW]|
|Spurs odds||-8 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-345/+280 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||N/A [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
The Spurs are coming off two close losses, but enter this matchup 3-1 ATS in the bubble. The Jazz are looking to secure the No. 4 seed in the West but will be without four key players. Both teams enter this game on equal rest in a showdown for seeding.
Donovan Mitchell has risen to the challenge of filling in the usage that Bojan Bogdanovic used to soak up. Mitchell had a great performance in the Jazz’s win over the Grizzlies with 18 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists as he lead the offense.
On Friday, the Jazz will be without their star point guard along with Rudy Gobert (rest), Mike Conley (Knee), and Royce O’Neale (Calf). This is a massive hit for the Jazz.
Per Cleaning the Glass, there were only 100 possessions this season where none of the above Jazz players were in the game. The Jazz had a -3.6 net rating in those possessions. Without a strong playmaker on the court, the Jazz will struggle as they turn the game over to Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
Joe Ingles should see his usage skyrocket as it currently sits at 17.4% on the season. He should score a few more points than his season average of about 10, but I think he should have an increase in assists from 5.1 as he works to facilitate the offense.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have gotten a bit healthier with Marco Belinelli’s return on Wednesday, but Bryn Forbes (quad) is listed as OUT for this matchup.
The Spurs came into the bubble playing well; they won their first two matchups and then pushed both the 76ers and Nuggets to close finishes. They’ve done this despite having a bubble-worst 51.4% eFG% when adjusted for location — in other words, the Spurs’ eighth-best eFG% is inflated as they continue to rely on the long 2-pointer as their most frequently taken shot.
What is interesting is that the Spurs have maintained this level of success throughout the season. The Spurs shoot the third-fewest percentage of their shots from 3-point range (30.1%) and the highest percentage from midrange (41.6%).
They have the fifth-highest shooting percentage from 3 in the league and the the second-best from mid range. While it looks like the Spurs should be due for some regression based on eFG%, considering their sustained success this entire season, there’s reason to believe this can continue.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Ultimately, the Jazz are resting too many people to combat a motivated Spurs squad. This is a must win game for the Spurs and they will be playing a depleted Jazz team. Despite this, eight points seems like a lot to lay.
One prop I do like, given the absence of both LaMarcus Aldrige and Rudy Gobert, is related to Spurs big man Jakob Poeltl. He has a line set on his total points to be over 6.5 (-140), using the FantasyLabs Prop tool, this shows an implied total of 7.2 points with a FantasyLabs projection of 9.5 pts. This prop has a bet quality of 10, which which have posted a win rate of 60.31%
The PICK: Jakob Poeltl 6.5 points (-140 FanDuel)