The eight Orlando seeding games finally come to an end tonight, but our crew still has some bets they like before things close out.
Where’s the value? Our staff is here to break down their favorite NBA bets for today’s slate and has found angles in two games:
- 4 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
- 6:30 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder vs. LA Clippers
Friday NBA Betting Picks
Roberto Arguello: Heat vs. Pacers
|Heat odds||-1 [BET NOW]|
|Pacers odds||+1 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-113/+105 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||218 [BET NOW]|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
With the Heat and Pacers guaranteed to face each other in the first round on Tuesday, each team has little to play for and will likely be sitting the majority of their best players. While the Pacers have three starters absent (in addition to all-star Domantas Sabonis, who is not in the bubble due to a foot injury), I like that they have more players available than the Heat.
Miami will be missing four of its most versatile defenders in Adebayo, Butler, Crowder and Iguodala. As a result, Indiana’s active roster likely outclasses the Heat on defense.
Miami had a 22-point lead with 10:21 remaining against the Thunder on Wednesday. Then, the Heat subbed-in players from the end of its bench, who subsequently blew that massive lead in just a single quarter of action. I expect the Heat to have similar trouble defensively in this game, but the offensive unit should see a boost with Kendrick Nunn returning to action.
With the Pacers’ team total at 108.5, I can’t help but pounce on that number.
The Pick: Pacers Over 108.5 team total (would bet up to 115)
|Thunder odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Clippers odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+188/-230 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||225.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||6:30 p.m. ET|
There’s some really tricky logic to this pick, so let’s see if you can follow it. Are you ready?
On a day of completely meaningless basketball that has no effect on playoff seeding, I looked for the team with the longest moneyline odds on the board and took it.
Here’s what we know. Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder are out for the Thunder, and Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are out for the Clippers. Everyone else of note in this game should see limited minutes — from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams.
And before you point to the Lou Williams bench, he is an aging vet and needs his rest too. If anything, OKC has the better young players. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not need as much rest, and Darius Bazley has been really good the past few games.
Today’s matchups are basically glorified Summer League games that feel like coin-flips. Do I like the Thunder randoms more than the Clippers randoms? I dunno, maybe, probably not.
But if you’re giving me nearly 2-1 odds on a coin-flip situation? Yeah, I’ll play those odds and see what happens. Take me home, Hamidou Diallo.
The Pick: Thunder ML (+188)