Manchester City vs. Lyon Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-400 [BET NOW]|
|Lyon Odds||+1050 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+525 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||TBD [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access|
Two clubs with very different expectations meet in Lisbon, Portugal on Saturday for a spot in the Champions League semifinals. One team expects to win the trophy, and the other has beaten the odds to get to this position. The contrast in styles will be fascinating in a quarterfinal matchup that should be an entertaining game.
This might be tough to read after Bayern dominated against Barcelona on Friday, but Manchester City are probably the most talented club left in the Champions League. They have the ability to put up four goals in any game (even against Premier League champion Liverpool). Over the course of their season, Manchester City’s xG/game was 2.69, and their xG differential was 1.72. Since the restart, their expected goal differential was 2.0.
The Cityzens have the best midfielder in the world in Kevin De Bruyne, who sends in constant crosses and passes that defenders don’t see coming. Man City gets a multitude of chances inside the box in just about every game they play in. The result will come down to being clinical in the box. However, they are prone to leaving themselves open at the back because of their attacking style. On top of that, their defenders are probably the weakness of their squad, so Lyon should have some chances on the counterattack.
Lyon plays in the French Ligue 1, and finished seventh in the table. Their season was cut short due to COVID-19, when they were just one point behind the fifth- and sixth-place clubs. When they face elite competition, they like to pack it in and counterattack. This was the case in their recent game against Paris Saint-Germain in the French Cup Final, and both of their UCL games against Juventus. They have played stellar defense, but only generated 0.4 xG over those two games against Juve. (Yes, you read that correctly.) Man City will defend well and Lyon will need to take advantage of the few opportunities they do have if they want to steal this game.
Interestingly enough, Lyon have been successful against Man City. They have played twice, with Lyon winning once and the two clubs playing to a draw in the other. The matches — both in 2018 — saw three and four total goals scored, respectively.
This game will likely come down to the finishing quality of Man City’s Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling inside the box. Due to the history of the matchup, I am going to stay away from the -1.5. However, I do really like the over. Man City’s total expected goals over their season is 3.66/game. While Lyon had a low xG against Juventus, they did generate 1.28 xG/game in their season as well.
Man City play a very open style compared to Lyon, and I think both teams will have plenty of opportunities to score in this match. On top of that, the single-leg format has led to more goals in this tournament. There have been at least three goals in every game thus far (7/7).
The most likely result to me here is 3-1, so I am taking the over. I will be betting the over 2.5 in the -180 to -190 range, but I know most don’t like laying that much juice. I would also play over 2.5, 3.0 up to -150.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-180); Over 2.5, 3.0 (-145)